The last 30 days
The brain against the bookmakers
The brain forecasts every match in the world it can read, before kick-off, and is scored on every one against the result and one bookmaker's prices with the margin taken out. Lower log loss is better. A verdict needs 100 priced matches and a difference beyond twice its margin of error, corrected for testing many leagues at once.
- Matches forecast
- 1632
- Played and scored
- 193
- With the bookmaker's prices
- 133
By market
| Market | Scored | Brain | Bookmaker | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result | 193 | 1.0646 | 1.0136 | too close |
| Over/under 2.5 | 193 | 0.7086 | 0.6945 | too close |
| Both teams score | 193 | 0.7363 | 0.7298 | too few |
How sure it was, against how often it happened
- said 0%–10% (2 times)averaged 8%, happened 0%
- said 10%–20% (20 times)averaged 17%, happened 20%
- said 20%–30% (193 times)averaged 24%, happened 25%
- said 30%–40% (174 times)averaged 32%, happened 34%
- said 40%–50% (171 times)averaged 44%, happened 40%
- said 50%–60% (10 times)averaged 54%, happened 70%
- said 60%–70% (6 times)averaged 65%, happened 67%
- said 70%–80% (3 times)averaged 75%, happened 67%
Countries
most matches first- Germany32 · too few
- Austria16 · too few
- Wales11 · too few
- Netherlands10 · too few
- Spain9 · too few
- Poland8 · too few
- Ireland7 · too few
- Switzerland7 · too few
- France6 · too few
- Czech-Republic5 · too few
- Finland5 · too few
- Brazil4 · too few
- Denmark4 · too few
- Portugal4 · too few
- Sweden4 · too few
- Belgium3 · too few
- Northern-Ireland3 · too few
- Norway3 · too few
- San-Marino3 · too few
- Turkey3 · too few
and 36 more for members.
Leagues
most matches first- Netherlands Eerste Divisie9 · too few
- Wales Premier League7 · too few
- Switzerland Challenge League5 · too few
- Austria Regionalliga - South5 · too few
- Ireland First Division5 · too few
- France Ligue 25 · too few
- Austria Regionalliga - Ost4 · too few
- Austria Regionalliga - North4 · too few
- Wales FAW Championship4 · too few
- Germany Oberliga - Hamburg4 · too few
- Finland Ykkösliiga4 · too few
- Czech-Republic FNL3 · too few
- Germany Oberliga - Bayern Nord3 · too few
- Germany Oberliga - Niedersachsen3 · too few
- San-Marino Campionato3 · too few
- Austria 2. Liga3 · too few
- Germany Regionalliga - Nordost3 · too few
- Germany Oberliga - Bayern Süd3 · too few
- Spain Tercera División RFEF - Group 152 · too few
- Belgium Challenger Pro League2 · too few
and 80 more for members.
Any window (7, 90 or 365 days, or all), every country and league, and day by day: for members whose plan includes the data room.
See plansEvery league's own page shows its verdict too: football, every league.